Construction and Simulation Analysis of Epidemic Propagation Model Based on COVID-19 Characteristics.

This paper proposes the epidemic propagation model SEAIHR to elucidate the propagation mechanism of the Corona Virus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19). Based on the analysis of the propagation characteristics of COVID-19, the hospitalization isolation state and recessive healing state are introduced. The home morbidity state is introduced to consider the self-healing of asymptomatic infected populations, the early isolation of close contractors, and the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures. In this paper, by using the real epidemic data combined with the changes in parameters in different epidemic stages, multiple model simulation comparative tests were conducted. The experimental results showed that the fitting and prediction accuracy of the SEAIHR model was significantly better than the classical epidemic propagation model, and the fitting error was 34.4-72.8% lower than that of the classical model in the early and middle stages of the epidemic.

Kotter's 8 stages of change: implementation of clinical screening protocols for assessing patients for COVID-19 - a review of an academic medical centre's preparedness.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 screening protocols rapidly evolved as a result of changing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH) recommendations. These protocols led to operational improvements at one large academic medical centre using change management methods explained in Kotter's 8-stage change model. METHODS: We reviewed all iterations of clinical process maps for identifying, isolating and assessing COVID-19 infections in paediatric and adult populations within one emergency department (ED) from 28 February 2020 to 5 April 2020. We incorporated CDC and CDPH criteria for the various roles of healthcare workers in ED patient assessment. RESULTS: Using Kotter's 8-stage change model, we outlined the chronological evolution of basic screening criteria, as well as how these were reviewed, modified and implemented during the onset and through the time of greatest uncertainty of COVID-19 in the USA. Our results demonstrate a successful creation, and subsequent execution, of rapidly changing protocols across a large workforce. CONCLUSION: We effectively applied a business change management framework to the hospital management response during a pandemic; we share these experiences and challenges to inform and guide future operational decision making during times of rapid change.

Fake news and covid-19: a concern due to the low vaccine coverage in Brazil / Fake News e covid-19: uma preocupação devido à baixa cobertura de vacinação no Brasil

Abstract This study comprised the application of a survey in São Paulo, Brazil, in 2 different periods of 2020: the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic and the disease's first peak (from March to April, 100 interviews) to the time of stability in case fatality rates (from May to July, 100 interviews); the questionnaire included was composed of 14 multiple-choice questions to evaluate the importance of mass communication channels, including social media, and the level of importance attributed to preventive measures at the beginning of the pandemic. The changes in people's behavior, even in a group with more schooling, which initially considered preventive measures to be very important (91%) but, in the second survey, was reduced to 82%. The reinforcement of preventive measures to reduce cases and deaths by covid-19 in Brazil is urgent, allied to recommendations with clear information on the importance of vaccination to avoid low rates as the current situation of vaccine coverage for preventable diseases.

Resumo Foi conduzida uma pesquisa em São Paulo, no Brasil, em 2 períodos distintos de 2020: sendo o primeiro no início da pandemia do covid-19 com um elevado pico de incidência da doença (de março a abril, foram realizadas 100 entrevistas) até o momento de estabilidade nas taxas de letalidade (de maio a julho, foram realizadas outras 100 entrevistas), composto por 14 questões de múltipla escolha para avaliar a importância dos canais de comunicação em massa (incluindo as redes sociais) e o nível de importância atribuído às medidas preventivas no início da pandemia. As mudanças no comportamento das pessoas, mesmo dentro de um grupo de nível educacional alto, que inicialmente considerava as medidas preventivas muito importantes (91%), apresenta considerável queda na segunda pesquisa realizada (redução para 82%). Há a necessidade urgente de reforço de medidas preventivas para redução de casos e óbitos por covid-19 no Brasil, aliadas a recomendações com informações claras como a importância da vacinação para evitar baixas taxas de cobertura vacinal que se apresentam em outras doenças preveníveis por vacinas.

Using the transtheoretical model of behaviour change to analyse the impact of stopping exercise: a reflection.

This article is an analytical reflection of the personal health journey of a first-year nursing student that was undertaken as part of a first-year unit of study. Focusing on social, physical and psychological aspects of health, it explores the impact of the cessation of exercise on her emotional and physical health and wellbeing. This is relevant to current practice as a result of COVID-19, which reduced opportunities for exercise for many people, whether because of self-isolation and lockdown restrictions on leisure facilities or increased workload and caring responsibilities, all of which affect health and wellbeing. The article is presented in the first person, reflecting the personal analysis it captures.

The Development of a Health Promotion Program for Unmarried Mothers Living in Residential Facilities Using Urban Forests: An Intervention Mapping Approach Based on the Transtheoretical Model.

Unmarried mothers living in residential facilities (UMLFs) in Korea face complex and challenging physical, psychological, and socioeconomic issues. This study developed a physical and mental health promotion program using urban forests for UMLFs based on the transtheoretical model and evidence. We utilized an intervention mapping approach (IMA) and assessed the needs of UMLFs by analyzing previous quantitative studies. Moreover, we conducted a qualitative hermeneutic phenomenological study involving nine participants. Based on the needs assessment, important and changeable determinants were identified; further, the program performance and change objectives were classified to achieve the program goals and establish the intervention strategy. We found that physical activity using forests, self-reflection using metaphors, five-sense activities, achievement activities using natural objects, building interpersonal relationships in the forest, and designing future plans, are desirable methods for improving the health of UMLFs. The IMA was deemed appropriate for the systematic development of health promotion programs for UMLFs through clear links among change objectives, theoretical methods, and practice strategies. These results should be applied to future intervention studies.